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http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(15)60655-9/fulltext?elsca1=etoc&elsca2=email&elsca3=0140-6736_20150523_385_9982_&elsca4=Public%20Health%7CInfectious%20Diseases%7CHealth%20Policy%7CInternal%2FFamily%20Medicine%7CGeneral%20Surgery%7CLancet